The median price of a single-family home in Holmdel increased by just 1% in 2013 (from $651,625 in 2012 to $658,500). The median is the price at which 50% of the homes sold for more and 50% sold for less. It’s normally a better indicator than the mathematical average, which can be skewed by a handful of very high (or very low) priced home sales. Interestingly enough, this year the average Holmdel home price ($757,940) increased by 8%. When the average is higher than the median, it indicates that more higher-end homes sold.
4% more Holmdel homes sold in 2013 than in 2012; an increase in sales (i.e., demand) normally predicts higher home prices in the near future. However, we also saw a large (39%) increase in the number of homes listed for sale (i.e., supply); more listings tend to result in lower home prices or to moderate price increases.
The real estate absorption rate looks at both demand and supply. If you’ve been following my posts you know that a real estate absorption rate of between 5 and 7 months is considered to be a “normal market”, whereas greater than 7 months is a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is a “seller’s market”. Holmdel started the year with an absorption rate of 7.7 months and ended 2013 with a rate of 6.2 months, so we went from a “buyer’s market” into a “normal market” during the year. Next door in Colts Neck the absorption rate is 8.4 months, which still falls into the “buyer’s market” range.
The average Holmdel home sold faster in 2013 than it did in 2012. If a home is sold on its first listing, we measure the days it was on the market (DOM). However, if the listing expires before the home sells, once the home is re-listed we can measure either the DOM for the new listing or the number of cumulative days on the market (CDOM). The CDOM gives a much better idea of how long the home really took to sell. For Holmdel, the average CDOM went from 116 days in 2012 to 96 days in 2013.
If you’re a Holmdel home owner, there are lots of things to be happy about: sales are up, prices are up, and the absorption rate is much shorter. If you’re thinking of selling your home this year, please let me be one of the REALTORS® you interview to list your home on the market. A decision on “fair market value” for your home should be based on solid data about the current market.
If you’re thinking of buying a home in Holmdel, you’ll have to plan to spend a little more than you would have a year ago, but you can feel glad that the increased number of homes listed for sale have kept the median price increase to just 1%. If you’ll need a mortgage, also keep a close eye on mortgage rates, which are expected to rise significantly by the 4th quarter.
If you search online and find a Holmdel house you really like, remember my advice: DON’T CALL THE LISTING AGENT (even if it’s me). The listing agent works for the Seller, and has a fiduciary responsibility to get the highest price for his/her client. I’d be glad to represent you as a buyer’s agent, and negotiate the lowest price .
Here are all the Holmdel statistics:
Holmdel Home Sales, January 1 - December 31
2012 2013 Comment
Sales (Demand) 150 156 4% more homes sold.
Listings (Supply) 67 93 39% more homes on market.
Months' Supply 7.7 6.2 Stronger demand vs.
Note: based on the past 12 months supply.
Median Sale $651,625 $658,500 1% higher median price.
Average Sale $700,476 $757,940 8% higher average price.
Average Listing $742,095 $800,073 8% higher avg listing.
Avg Sale/List % 94.4% 94.7% Similar Sales/Listing %.
Avg Cum DOM 116 96 Shorter average CDOM
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
(732) 239-0739 (cell) (732) 530-6686 (office)