Non-Violent Crimes Up in Holmdel Since January 2012
The N.J. State Police website will be updated weekly with municipal and county crime statistics.
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Non-violent crimes have increased in Holmdel, compared to January of last year.
The New Jersey State Police Uniform Crime Reporting Unit has just taken a significant step forward in reporting crime throughout the state.A link was placed on the public web site that connects users to very recent and comparative crime data for municipalities and counties. The data is updated every week, or as often as municipalities provide fresh numbers.
According to the statistics, non-violent crime is up 21 percent since last year. Overall, reported crimes are up 26 percent since January of 2012. Non-violent crime includes theft and larceny.
Reports of simple and aggravated assault are up from four reports to seven. Strong arm robbery is down since 2012, from one to zero.
Initially, this information is offered in the form of a PDF document, however, the UCR Unit members are developing an interactive web page format that will allow users to search for specific data.
The new data can be viewed at njsp.org/info/ucr_currentdata.html.
Martin B. Brilliant
2:35 pm on Thursday, February 21, 2013
The availability of these crime statistics is a welcome step forward, but too much importance should not be attached to the numbers. Statistical evaluation would be a welcome next step. My rough and ready statistical analysis suggests that none of these changes are statistically significant. If a few events had occurred in one month instead of another, the results could have looked entirely different. We don't have enough data yet to know whether anything has really changed.
Observer
10:05 pm on Thursday, February 21, 2013
This data fits to the many calls from the Holmdel police to residents about attempted and committed burglaries. I am glad those data are published here now. I hope that police changes focus from more profitable "traffic control" measures to crime avoidance.
Observer
10:19 pm on Thursday, February 21, 2013
@ Martin Brilliant: sorry to tell you, but those numbers are very well statistically significant! I can easily tell from the number of police calls to residents to inform about attempted and committed burglaries in Holmdel that this number overall last year is far more than in 2011 (by then those calls were very unique). Something has definitely changed here, and it is concerning.
Martin B. Brilliant
4:08 am on Friday, February 22, 2013
From my viewpoint as a retired engineer I am wary of drawing conclusions from insufficient data. It always helps to have more data.
The numbers on the NJSP website are not statistically significant by themselves. I never was an expert on statistics and what skills I had are a bit rusty, to say the least. I used the procedure described at http://www.quantitativeskills.com/sisa/statistics/t-thlp.htm and entered the two numbers 14 and 17 in the table entry procedure. The difference is not nearly significant at 5% confidence (p = 0.21137).
Thank you, Observer, for the additional data.